Goldman Sachs Report: Australia is One of The Least Likely Countries To Win in World Cup 2014

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australia-in-world-cup-2014World Cup 2014 is near and even those who have little to no interest in soccer usually want to get involved in this four years event. Goldman Sachs had taken this seriously by processing the data all the way back to 1960 to give the most accurate possible prediction of the tournament’s outcome.

According to Goldman Sachs report, Australia’s odds come in at 1500/1, with only three countries less likely to win. They are Costa Rica, at 3000/1, and Iran and Honduras, both at 2500/1. Additionally, the report also states that Australia has an 11.5% chance of reaching the second round, and a 0.1% chance of winning the tournament.

Meanwhile, Goldman gives Brazil the best chance of winning, at 3/1, despite Spain being No 1 in the FIFA World Rankings. The host country is bestowed with a 48.5% probability of winning in Rio, with Argentina second favourites with a 14.1% chance.

The report predicts that victorious nations can experience a boost in their economy, which could be welcome news to a troubled Brazil if they do triumph. Yet,  the predictions differ from the bookies’ odds in that they “are based on a regression analysis that uses the entire history of mandatory international football matches — i.e., no friendlies — since 1960. This gives us about 14,000 observations to estimate the coefficients”.

On the other hand, The Socceroos fans remain positive. Goldman’s analyst Andrew Boak notes that Australians have bought the second-most tickets of any foreign country.

Here is the complete report from Goldman Sachs. Click here to download the PDF version. Just right-click the link and choose “Save link as…” option.