The era where AltaVista was the top search engine and Netscape was the only web browser is over.
Will the same thing happen to Facebook?
It is probably out of question that Facebook could completely leave the stage. However, in 2024 Facebook will look very different from today’s version. Primarily, the company will continue to evolve from a social network to a more traditional media company. Some major trends will likely boost that transformation, including the ascendance of smaller private networks, emerging platforms and growth in developing countries.
Mobile Adaptation
The shift of Facebook’s service from desktop to mobile have changed how people behave on social media and the way they define it.
Years ago, the general opinion was that young people were exhibitionists at heart who had no reservations about sharing their data with the world. Mobile has changed that view. When people sit down at their computer to write, they might expect their messages to be seen by the world. However, on mobile people are used to sending messages only to our closest friends and family. Snapchat’s success bolstered that view. In 2014, the narrative has evolved. Teens/mobile users are now perceived as fiercely protective of their privacy.
Simultaneously, Facebook has become a teen’s version of LinkedIn — a network you have to join to participate in the wider world, but a space that commands little attention. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg acknowledged that Snapchat has addressed a previously unstated need in the marketplace for more private social media interactions. Zuckerberg reportedly made a $3 billion unsuccessful bid for Snapchat after Facebook’s would-be Snapchat competitor, Poke, failed to gain public attraction.
Facebook has been proactively avoided falling behind again. Step one: Messenger, a mobile app released in August 2011. From the start, Messenger was too complicated to be considered a substitute for texting. Plus, if someone wasn’t your Facebook friend, you couldn’t message him or her. Facebook listened and adapted, though. The company addressed this issue late last year, raising the question: What is Facebook if not a means to connect you to your Facebook friends?
Expect the question of “What is Facebook?” to linger. Once, the site stood for permanence and authenticity. Now the company is ready to let users go anonymous on some new Facebook-branded apps. As Zuckerberg noted on his fourth quarter earnings call, the strategy for 2014 is more apps, a kind of divide-and-conquer strategy for mobile that will provide disparate experiences, all brought you by Facebook.
The next step is Paper, a news aggregation app that the company introduced Monday, a day before its 10-year anniversary.
The Next 10 Years
It was predicted that by 2017, 2.5 billion people will have smartphones, compared to 1.75 billion today. On this case, Facebook will behave like a media company, releasing apps to address new needs in the market. These needs will likely spread beyond smartphones and tablets into wearable computing. Facebook is already on Google Glass. If smartwatches catch on, Facebook will want to be a forerunner as well.
Facebook is a global company and can’t just cater its services to the rich. The company was putting a lot of focus on “the next billion,” customers who still use feature phones and live in developing countries. Last July, Facebook announced its Facebook For Every Phone app had hit 100 million users. To reach the other 2.5 billion consumers around the world who will have feature phones in 2017, the company will continue to offer that stripped-down experience.
In other words, because of the growth of new mobile platforms and its growing presence in the developing world, Facebook will package in many different forms.
A Media Company
In its first ten years, Facebook’s primary appeal was its user base. There was really no other reason to go on Facebook except to see your friends. Over the next decade, as it competes with Twitter, Google+ and a host of up-and-coming apps, Facebook will have to offer something more.
One possibility is content creation. While the idea of Facebook-produced TV shows may seem far-fetched, who would have guessed Amazon would be doing the same? That’s why, although Facebook denies it, the company’s move into news aggregation has made such a scenario more plausible. After all, now that Facebook has hired editors, why not writers and, eventually, actors? After all, now that Facebook has hired editors, why not writers and, eventually, actors? The company is already indirectly subsidizing actors and public figures who use the social network to reach out to their fans.
If such content creation seems familiar, look no further than Yahoo. With an aging demo but huge reach, Facebook could easily become the Yahoo of the late teens/early 20s set. Maybe sooner than that. Facebook wouldn’t love the comparison, of course, but things could be worse. Despite its troubles, Yahoo is still powerful and viable.
On the other hand, Facebook could do everything right and add another billion or so customers, making it more of a counterbalance against Apple, Google and Amazon. In such a scenario, Facebook probably wouldn’t have any choice but to expand into hardware and content to make its ecosystem viable. Since consumer electronics ecosystems aren’t mutually exclusive, it will be harder to differentiate oneself.
For the average user, then, Facebook wouldn’t have much different to offer, except maybe for its content. Its huge user base will be both a selling point and an obstacle. Much will be gained in such a scenario, but something will be lost, too. When Google is becoming less synonymous with “search engine” and more with “huge and scary media company,” Facebook will shed its identity as a social network. That’s a contrast from how many see Facebook today, but not longer hugely off base.